A decade after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in universities but hardly any elected officials or advocates want to engage even with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the status quo. They writes two essays that aim for objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments range over national emblems, levies, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed here and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has has something to learn from the other's arguments."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
